The Art of Thinking Clearly
Rolf Dobelli
Language: English
Pages: 384
ISBN: 0062219693
Format: PDF / Kindle (mobi) / ePub
The Art of Thinking Clearly by world-class thinker and entrepreneur Rolf Dobelli is an eye-opening look at human psychology and reasoning — essential reading for anyone who wants to avoid “cognitive errors” and make better choices in all aspects of their lives.
Have you ever: Invested time in something that, with hindsight, just wasn’t worth it? Or continued doing something you knew was bad for you? These are examples of cognitive biases, simple errors we all make in our day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to spot them, we can avoid them and make better decisions.
Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision-making—work, at home, every day. It reveals, in 99 short chapters, the most common errors of judgment, and how to avoid them.
prices will rise next month and one warning of a drop. Send the first mail to fifty thousand people and the second mail to a different set of fifty thousand. Suppose that after one month, the indices have fallen. Now you can send another e-mail, but this time only to the fifty thousand people who received a correct prediction. These fifty thousand you divide into two groups: The first half learns that prices will increase next month, and the second half discovers they will fall. Continue doing
to introduce a new detergent and asks for tenders from five suppliers, that’s nothing more than an auction—with the risk of the winner’s curse. The auctioning of everyday life has now reached tradesmen, too, thanks to the Internet. When my walls needed a new lick of paint, instead of tracking down the handiest painter, I advertised the job online. Thirty painters from more than three hundred miles away competed for the job. The best offer was so low that, out of compassion, I could not accept
than nothing. Those who score at least 2 or higher usually opt for the riskier option. They prefer the gamble. This is especially true for men. One factor that separates the groups is their ability to control their impulses. In chapter 51 on hyperbolic discounting, we covered the seductive power of “now.” Frederick put the following question to the participants: “Would you rather have $3,400 now or $3,800 in a month?” In general, people with low CRT scores favor getting the smaller amount
proof is an evolutionary survival strategy. Following the crowd has saved our butts more often in the past hundred thousand years than striking out on our own. With the false-consensus effect, no outside influences are involved. Despite this, it still has a social function, which is why evolution didn’t eliminate it. Our brain is not built to recognize the truth; instead, its goal is to leave behind as many offspring as possible. Whoever seemed courageous and convincing (thanks to the
5–37. The original experiment with two buttons: Herbert M. Jenkins and William C. Ward, “Judgment of Contingency between Responses and Outcomes,” Psychological Monographs 79 (1965): 1–17. The later experiment with just one button and no obligation to push the button. The subjects still had the illusion of control: Lorraine G. Allan and Herbert M. Jenkins, “The Judgment of Contingency and the Nature of the Response Alternatives,” Canadian Journal of Psychology 34 (1980): 1–11. The