Left Brain, Right Stuff: How Leaders Make Winning Decisions
Phil Rosenzweig
Language: English
Pages: 0
ISBN: 1469278650
Format: PDF / Kindle (mobi) / ePub
Left Brain, Right Stuff takes up where other books about decision making leave off. For many routine choices, from shopping to investing, we can make good decisions simply by avoiding common errors, such as searching only for confirming information or avoiding the hindsight bias. But as Phil Rosenzweig shows, for many of the most important, more complex situations we face―in business, sports, politics, and more―a different way of thinking is required. Leaders must possess the ability to shape opinions, inspire followers, manage risk, and outmaneuver and outperform rivals.
Making winning decisions calls for a combination of skills: clear analysis and calculation―left brain―as well as the willingness to push boundaries and take bold action― right stuff. Of course leaders need to understand the dynamics of competition, to anticipate rival moves, to draw on the power of statistical analysis, and to be aware of common decision errors―all features of left brain thinking. But to achieve the unprecedented in real-world situations, much more is needed. Leaders also need the right stuff. In business, they have to devise plans and inspire followers for successful execution; in politics, they must mobilize popular support for a chosen program; in the military, commanders need to commit to a battle strategy and lead their troops; and in start-ups, entrepreneurs must manage risk when success is uncertain. In every case, success calls for action as well as analysis, and for courage as well as calculation.
Always entertaining, often surprising, and immensely practical, Left Brain, Right Stuff draws on a wealth of examples in order to propose a new paradigm for decision making in synch with the way we have to operate in the real world. Rosenzweig’s smart and perceptive analysis of research provides fresh, and often surprising, insights on topics such as confidence and overconfidence, the uses and limits of decision models, the illusion of control, expert performance and deliberate practice, competitive bidding and new venture management, and the true nature of leadership.
fact he had thought the Raiders were more likely to win, but correctly figured that just about everyone else would pick the Raiders. Given that there were twenty contestants and the payoff was winner-take-all, there was little to be gained by going along with the majority, but potentially a lot to be gained if he picked the Seahawks and they won. That was a smart strategic move, made with an understanding of the likely actions of rivals. Steve knew the name of the game wasn’t just to do well, but
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fact initiate too few complicated and ambitious projects. WHAT’S THE RIGHT LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE? So far we have seen that it’s not helpful merely to infer overconfidence after the fact, when things have gone wrong. Nor is it correct to use one word for three very different things. There’s little reason to suggest that overconfidence is as prevalent as is often claimed. But we shouldn’t stop there. If overconfidence means “greater confidence than circumstances warrant,” we need to go another
Eighties, on Wall Street, there was still a group of ‘gut feel’ traders and there was this collision with these people who were using complex mathematics. In | 9781610393072-text.indd 172 172 | 10/24/13 10:51 AM WHERE MODELS FEAR TO TREAD sports it was exactly the same thing.”11 Quants had already revolutionized finance and were now making their mark in baseball. With the publication of Moneyball, the use of statistical analysis in baseball became widely accepted. Statistically minded
an example of achievement over adversity, of defying expectations through positive thinking and self-confidence.22 When we stand back from the claims and counterclaims, Billy Beane and Joe Morgan are both right, just about different things. We come back to one of the central questions of great decision making: Am I predicting something I cannot influence, or can I exert control? The job of a general manager is to assemble a team that will perform well on the field. When he evaluates players, when